X Follow Graph · v6 · 10-Day Synthesis

v5 changes vs v4: v4 still under-cited AI lab founders + hyperscaler CEOs you follow. v5 adds 4 NEW themes: (1) AI Lab CEOs & Founders (Elon/Sam/Karpathy/Andrew Ng/Pichai/Demis/Satya), (2) Gavin Baker's switched scale-up networking thesis (his anchor view), (3) Dwarkesh Podcast deep dives, (4) Dan Ives Apple $400 PT + Cisco bull. Color-coded voice tags at right of each quote — verify diversity by scanning page.

Grok V9 Reveal (Elon)

1.5T params

Pre-training done, Cursor mid-training next, 3-4wks to release (Musk 5/17, 4.9K likes)

IsomorphicLabs Raise (Demis)

$2.1B

Reimagine drug discovery; mission "solve all disease" (Hassabis 5/12, 19,305 likes)

Dan Ives Apple PT

$400

"Toll collector on AI highway"; golden age via consumer AI (Ives 5/8)

Sam Altman Codex Offer

2 mo free

"Codex is the best AI coding product" — 30-day promo for switchers (5/13, 21K likes)

★A · TMTBreakout — "Sam's Splurge" Paradigm Shift & Gemini 3 ReadNEW v6

Why this matters: TMTBreakout (17-yr Tech HF Manager, 15.6K followers, top-10 finance Substack) wrote the most-circulated buyside framework for the current AI cycle. Posts below are from Nov 2025-April 2026 but remain foundational — Ryan reads these before every NVDA print. Pulling forward for v6 context anchor.

TMTBreakout (Sam's Splurge anchor)1,737♥ · 282 RT"The Non-Bubble that disappointed both Bulls and Bears — how Sam's Splurge changed everything. Both bulls and bears wanted a price-action bubble — bulls for the melt-up, bears for the I-told-you-so. That paradigm ended. Sam's $1.4T 30GW splurge opened pandora's box: (1) market began appreciating it was taking implicit bets on a 3-year-old startup industry/co; (2) interconnectedness + 'too big to fail' discussions; (3) government's role in AI accelerating doubts; (4) $1.4T plan = size of whole private credit market → ORCL/CRWV CDS spreads widened; (5) locked in commitments 8 years out → dragged long-horizon AI debate into the present. The market is doing what it always does: digest, recalibrate, reassign risk premia. Tech will always be narrative-heavy, but in a more balanced sentiment landscape, stock-picking becomes more relevant. SS popped the non-bubble. AI trade isn't broken — it's simply entering a more mature, scrutinized phase." TMTBreakout (Gemini 3 paradigm)156♥ · 19 RT"How Gemini 3 changed everything (again!) Market beginning to price a world where Google is the dominant LLM. Many key questions: How sticky is ChatGPT? Multi-modal is a game of marginal costs while reasoning is a game of marginal value. If OpenAI continues to fight Google on multimodal consumer features, they're entering a war of attrition mathematically destined to lose. Best thing OpenAI can do: cede multi-modal, reallocate compute toward reasoning, position as premium intelligence layer for Enterprise (Anthropic strategy). NVDA at 20x 2026 EPS — pretty good price to pay despite muddied narrative. Having mental agility to aggressively update priors and remain radically open-minded remains a critical edge." TMTBreakout 11/18411♥ · 46 RT"$GOOGL's Gemini 3 pricing signals they know they have the best model. Google — historically aggressive pricer trying to undercut OpenAI — is now positioning itself above OpenAI's flagship (GPT-5.1 at $1.25 input) and nearly matching Anthropic's premium. Massive shift in foundational model economics. Two distinct markets emerging: Commodity Intelligence (Gemini Flash, GPT-4o mini) racing to zero. Premium Intelligence (Gemini 3, Claude 3.5/4.5 Sonnet) charging for reasoning and reliability." TMTBreakout (MRVL Bull v Bear)"$MRVL Bull vs. Bear: Bulls — custom AI ASIC reiterated >20% growth FY27, doubling FY28 vs FY27. XPU-attach pipeline >$2B by FY29. Celestial AI path to $500M/$1B FY28/29 in >$10B scale-up interconnect TAM. $4-5 in CY27 × 35x = $150+. Bears — Matt management credibility ('Customer C bigger than A+B combined' last year), Aug-25 sharp selloff on weak near-term DC, custom rev fell sharply Q/Q this Q (~-30-40% Q/Q), heavily concentrated few hyperscalers, Auto/Industrial -58% Y/Y. High-20s forward P/E already discounts best-case AI." TMTBreakout (SNDK call)108♥"$SNDK $12-$14 March Guide. Buyside going to get close to $80-$100 in CY27 on this print (some bulls already there)." TMTBreakout"$SNDK Actually buyside prob at $100 after print with uber bulls $125+. Bulls 10x given secular + structural + cyclical tailwinds. Bears 5x peak."

★B · FundaAI — Premium Buyside ResearchNEW v6

FundaAI 5/17 (NVDA Rubin)26♥"Preview|$NVDA FY1Q27: Rubin's Slight Delay due to Thermal Issues; 2027 CoWoS Upside Revision. Rubin experienced several-week delay due to thermal design modifications. Chip power consumption surge to 1800-2300W. Original liquid metal plan faced leakage → switched TIM2 to graphite. Nvidia altered lid design early May from dual-piece to single-piece. Pushed back Rubin volume production several weeks. Lowered Rubin shipment share for 2026. With TSMC more aggressive capacity expansion, expect Nvidia to secure more CoWoS capacity in 2027." FundaAI 5/15 (TPU v9 networking)77♥"From TPU v9 networking discussions today: Google's next step-up comes from (1) new scale-out architecture corroborated by Boardfly direction + Virgo Network; (2) continued ICI bandwidth upgrades. Future TPU systems could move to higher-dimensional torus topology, potentially 6D torus. If TPU v9 upgrades topology + optical module speed + port ratio together, roughly 4× ICI bandwidth vs TPU v8 not entirely out of reach. Potential introduction of coherent-lite — dollar content per optical module could rise meaningfully, perhaps doubling. Beneficiaries: $LITE, $COHR, InnoLight, $NOK, $MRVL, $SMTC, $AXTI, $TSEM." FundaAI 5/14 (QCOM CPU TAM)28♥"Deep|$QCOM: Better Late Than Never — Massive CPU TAM Growth Sufficient to Accommodate New Entrants. Traditional LLM inference: 1 CPU driving 4-8 GPUs. Agentic AI architectures shifting CPU-to-GPU ratio toward 1:1. Server CPU delivery lead times extended from 1-2 weeks to 8-12 weeks. Both Intel and AMD raised prices. AWS + Google actively expanding CPU-intensive server clusters. Optimal timing for Qualcomm to enter server CPU market." FundaAI 5/11 ($LITE)46♥"Research|$LITE: From Cyclical Optical Name to AI Datacenter Bottleneck. Today's index flow is more catalyst; substance is market repricing LITE from cyclical optical components to critical bottleneck asset in AI datacenter optical interconnect. Innolight flagged 2.4T and coherent-lite — market no longer trading 1.6T ramp, already looking to next-gen. 2.4T / coherent-lite implies higher lane rates, more complex modulation, longer-reach, higher photonic-electronic integration. Higher tech bar → better positioned names with real depth in EML, InP, laser, OCS/CPO — LITE and COHR." FundaAI 5/11 (Weekly memory/CPU)"Why Memory / CPU Rally Accelerated and Outperformed Optics. Long-term readers recall we highlighted 'mis-positioning' by US funds significantly underweight semi/hardware. They're starting to adjust. Confirmed by Coatue's latest: Semis + Infra long exposure jumped to 58% from 35% at start of year. Altimeter's Brad Gerstner openly justified memory valuation + will be on podcast with Micron CEO in few weeks discussing how shortage could last until 2028/29 or longer. We sense attitude change by these two reputable US TMT funds has ignited FOMO. Once LTAs exceed 50% of mix, stock can no longer be viewed as cyclical. Increasingly hearing investors benchmark NAND valuation to HDD at 8-10x FCF." FundaAI 5/11221♥"Today's sharp rally in $LITE driven not only by QQQ 100 inclusion, but importantly by Innolight mentioning 2.4T demand in their group call. We highlighted the 2.4T timeline in our most important TPU Report last month." FundaAI 5/13 (Kioxia)"Since we published our Kioxia Initiation report highlighting its unique High IOPS advantage, Kioxia has risen 80%." FundaAI 5/7 (Cloudflare Monitor)"Cloudflare $NET about to report. Launching Cloudflare Monitor — Company Analysis PLAY. Tracks signals across Act 1/2/3 growth engines in real time. Continuously ingests thousands of unstructured data points from developer docs, partnerships, product release notes — AI structures noise, maps to Cloudflare revenue segments, calculates adoption velocity. Effectively automates heavy lifting of traditional data engineering team." FundaAI 5/7 ($DDOG)"Review|$DDOG 1Q26: Big Guidance Upside Surprise, No Growth Cliff Concern. 2Q26 guide implying mid-30s YoY growth, low-to-mid 30s FY26. Mitigates prior concerns about growth cliff in 2H26 tied to OpenAI migration. Two hyperscalers adopting DDOG for AI training. Reinforces premium valuation. Preference for infrastructure SaaS."

★C · Vik Sekar (Vik's Newsletter / Semidoped co-host)NEW v6

vikramskr 5/11 (analog moment)169♥"Wow this blew up for saying analog = hard. I joke that for every 10 software engineers there's 1 hardware engineer, and for every 10 digital engineers there's 1 analog engineer. Analog designers are underrated (and underpaid) — if their shit don't work, the chip does not power on. Design circuits to work over 6-sigma range — throw a good analog part into a goddamn volcano, it will work. Analog content doesn't have the same pricing power as digital chips. The 'boring plumbing' nobody notices until it's gone." vikramskr 5/10 (analog moment)1,134♥"I have worked 15 years in the world of analog semis, and perhaps its moment is finally here. Cannot begin to explain how much nuance exists in this field. Transistor on or off is >90% of the semi world, analog is more — much more. Semi tourists better brace for impact." vikramskr 5/8 (Apple-Intel)146♥"Apple, Intel Have Reached Preliminary Chip-Making Agreement. Very big news for Intel. TSMC's underinvestment in chip capacity is systematically giving away the keys to the kingdom to its competitors. Intel killing it recently with CPUs, advanced packaging capacity via EMIB (another TSMC kingdom key), and now Apple business. INTC can't stop winning." vikramskr 5/12 (Cerebras IPO)138♥"Cerebras IPO is this week, likely the hottest in 2026. $CRBS WSE is an extraordinary piece of engineering, truly. But the all-custom architecture has its consequences. I break down what the wafer scale engine is, how there is a solid moat, and what are the risks of deploying this hardware at scale." vikramskr 5/15 (GaN vs SiC / Wolfspeed / Semtech)84♥"TWiC: GaN vs SiC, Wolfspeed, Semtech. A lot of thoughts swimming in my head that I need to get down. Will convert to deep dives for paid subs eventually." vikramskr ($LASR)91♥"It's not just optics in AI interconnects that's all the rage. $LASR is up >500% YoY due to high power lasers delivered to the industrial and defense sectors." vikramskr 5/8 (TWiC weekly)22♥"This Week in Chips: How GF SCALE stacks up against TSMC COUPE. Intel's big score with Apple. NVIDIA's IREN investment. Optics industry post earnings. Cisco Silicon One — hidden AI play?" vikramskr 5/9 (power wall)176♥"Physics bottlenecks are the easiest to identify in AI infrastructure. This episode covers the absolute basics of 'the power wall' we will soon run into at the rack level." vikramskr 5/16104♥"This looks a lot like Semtech no?"

1 · AI Lab CEOs & FoundersNEW PRIMARY

Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind) — IsomorphicLabs $2.1B + Aletheia + AlphaGo 10yr

demishassabis 5/1219,305♥"I've always believed the No.1 application of AI should be to improve human health. That work started with AlphaFold, and now at IsomorphicLabs with the mission to reimagine drug discovery and one day solve all disease! We are turbocharging that goal with $2.1B in new funding." demishassabis 5/15 (RT)"Very excited to share a new milestone in AI for Math: Aletheia, powered by Gemini Deep Think, was just used to autonomously solve..." demishassabis 5/93,458♥"Hard to believe it's been 10 years since AlphaGo! It was wonderful to catch up with Lee Sae Dol last week in Korea and join Shin Jin-seo for a special Go match. Super interesting to hear how it changed the way players approach the game of Go!"

Sundar Pichai (Google) — Gemini Intelligence rollout + Googlebook

sundarpichai 5/124,958♥"Today at the Android Show (I/O edition) we announced Gemini Intelligence — bringing the best of Gemini to our most advanced devices. Automate multi-step tasks across apps and Chrome, fill out forms in a single tap, turn spoken thoughts into polished text with Rambler, build custom widgets & loads more." sundarpichai 5/12681♥"Gemini Intelligence features will roll out in waves starting with the latest Samsung Galaxy and Google Pixel phones this summer, and across Android devices including your watch, car, glasses & laptops later this year!" Google via Demis RT 5/131,110 RT"Introducing Googlebook, the first laptop designed for Gemini Intelligence. It's crafted for heavyweight performance..." sundarpichai 5/116,207♥"Today, we're starting to roll out end-to-end encryption for RCS messaging between Android and iPhone users!"

Satya Nadella (Microsoft) — MDASH cybersecurity, Excel "AI-complete", GPT-5.5 in M365

satyanadella 5/13993♥"Our new multi-model agentic security system brings together more than 100 specialized agents across frontier and custom models to find exploitable bugs, delivering top performance on the CyberGym benchmark. We used it ahead of Patch Tuesday to help find and fix 16 vulnerabilities." satyanadella 5/71,721♥"Great to bring GPT 5.5 Instant to M365 Copilot today. With quicker, clearer, and more accurate responses. Also rolling out to Copilot Studio and Foundry." satyanadella 5/101,184♥"Excel has quietly been Turing complete for a long time. Nice to see it now edging toward 'AI complete' — SGD, attention, next-token prediction… all in cells."

2 · Gavin Baker's Switched Scale-Up Networking ThesisNEW DEDICATED

GavinSBaker 4/16 (anchor thesis)2,183♥The thesis from his Dwarkesh-Jensen debate:
"Anthropic's models are run on GPUs, Trainium, TPUs... but as system level architectures diverge (torus vs. switched scale-up topologies, memory hierarchies, networking primitives), true portability is eroding. Mi300/Mi325 ≈ Hopper scale-up domain. Blackwell's scale-up domain is 9× larger than Mi355. Frontier models being explicitly co-designed for inference on specific hardware like GB300 racks. A model that runs well on Google's torus topology will run less efficiently on Nvidia's switched scale-up topology and vice versa — data traffic is fundamentally different. When training was the dominant cost, labs optimized to minimize capex. Today inference costs (tokens per watt per dollar) are everything. This means co-design and higher go-forward switching costs for individual models between systems. Explains why Anthropic and Nvidia came together. Systems evolve under local selective pressures: America's evolutionary pressure is shortage of watts → Nvidia optimizes for power efficiency, stays on copper. China has surfeit of watts → Huawei CloudMatrix 384 with optical scale-up domain much larger than Nvidia, at cost of much higher power. If Chinese ecosystem gets momentum, Chinese models might stop running well on American hardware." GavinSBaker 5/7816♥"There are 100,000 births per year in Taiwan and TSM needs to hire 10,000 people per year in Taiwan, a number which will only grow. Continued expansion in the United States is likely inevitable. Especially given immense willingness to pay a premium for American wafers." GavinSBaker 5/17 (Sohn fireside)146♥"Really fun interview with my friend Jas Khaira at Sohn." — The interview that BenBajarin synthesized to 585♥/64RT on the "last terrestrial mega data center may already be on someone's drawing board" thesis. Watch the YouTube: youtu.be/2Ryr95iiYNk GavinSBaker 5/2 (Sarah Friar)270♥"Sarah is a Hall of Fame CFO. Right up there with Colette Kress, David Zinsner and Amy Hood. Susan Li might join the club. Sarah is presiding over an extremely high stakes, multi-hundred billion game of securing capacity in advance of demand." GavinSBaker 4/17 (Aria Networks)201♥"Atreides and Valor led the Series A in Aria Networks. If you are using traditional data center networking for your front-end or scale-out networking in any AI cluster, please take a look at Aria's 'deep networking' technology. You will likely get higher MFU during training and more tokens per second per watt for inference. Lowering cost per token is great, but given that tokens are now literally revenue, Aria should increase your effective revenue per GPU by driving more tokens per second. Mansour Karam is exceptional imo: successful repeat deep tech founder, founded and sold Apstra to Juniper (now essentially the foundation of Juniper's entire networking tech-stack)." GavinSBaker 5/3 (China deprecated GPUs)429♥"The argument for selling deprecated GPUs to China: Selling them less advanced GPUs than we have in America decreases the odds that they develop more advanced GPUs than America that go down a different, more power intensive tech tree. Pro national-security." GavinSBaker 5/13"Yep. 'Switched scale-up networking' ftw." GavinSBaker 4/23"MFU is everything for GPU clusters and this comes down to networking" (re Subbu's xAI 11% MFU thread)

3 · Dwarkesh Podcast Deep DivesNEW

dwarkesh_sp 5/8 (David Reich)1,974♥"David Reich is back. He and Ali Akbari just published a paper that overturns long-standing consensus about human evolution — that natural selection has been dormant since the agricultural revolution. By scaling ancient DNA sequencing, they found selection has actually sped up. Selection went especially bonkers during the Bronze Age (~3,000 years ago). Over last 10K years, selection pushed the genetic predictor of cognitive performance up by roughly a full standard deviation — most between 4,000 and 2,000 years ago." dwarkesh_sp 5/15 (Eric Jang AlphaGo)2,629♥"New blackboard lecture w Eric Jang. He walks through how to build AlphaGo from scratch with modern AI tools. AlphaGo is still the cleanest worked example of the primitives of intelligence: search, learning from experience, self-play. Naive policy gradient RL has to figure out which of 100k+ tokens in your trajectory actually got you the right answer, while AlphaGo's MCTS suggests a strictly better action every single move — sidesteps credit assignment. Way humans learn is closer to the second." dwarkesh_sp 5/16 (Karpathy on continual learning)620♥"Continual learning sometimes gets discussed as if the goal is to dissolve the context/weights distinction. Karpathy points out this isn't how humans do it. Our working memory gets wiped regularly. What we actually have is a consolidation process (sleep) that distills stuff into the brain, in a weird and lossy way. It's not obvious it's something you can get for free from doing long enough RL loops." dwarkesh_sp 5/14 (Carl Shulman bioweapons)"AIs with advanced biological knowledge could quickly end up being superpowers in the international arena. The production of bioweapons doesn't need a huge amount of industrial capabilities. An AI that had the know-how to make bioweapons wouldn't necessarily need to use them — just the threat would be enough to make the US and China have to think about mutually assured destruction." dwarkesh_sp 5/16 (Jane Street DC)598 RT"Jane Street just showed the inside of their AI training data center in Texas. 4,032 GPUs. 56 racks. 8,000 km of fiber." dwarkesh_sp 5/15767♥"Very fun to hear Ron tell the stories of early Jane Street. Their first cluster was a pile of 6 Dell boxes in their office. And it was important to them that it be physically in their office so that if something went haywire, they could just physically unplug the machine. Goes without saying they can no longer fit their 100s of k of GPUs in their office."

4 · Dan Ives — Apple $400 PT + Cisco Bull + AI Revolution BullNEW

DivesTech 5/8959♥"We are raising our price target to $400 reflecting this new AI age coming to Apple that will enable Cupertino to finally get into the AI Revolution as we estimate roughly 20% of the world's population will access AI through an Apple device over the coming years. WWDC key." DivesTech 5/893♥"Apple will be the toll collector on the AI highway" DivesTech 5/13313♥"Cisco a monster quarter and outlook; another major bullish data point for the AI trade and infrastructure demand" DivesTech 5/12177♥"We believe it's top of the 3rd inning in the AI Revolution bull market...and we see software winners as next to benefit" DivesTech 5/12231♥"We believe tech stocks will continue to move higher into year end as the AI Revolution heads into its next gear of growth"

5 · TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium — Full Roadmap

Nystedt 5/14259♥ · 51 RTTSMC 2026 Tech Symposium summary: 18 fabs under construction globally (incl. 5 advanced packaging). 9 new plants/yr 2025-2026 vs 4/yr 2017-2024. Arizona Fab 1 output 1.8× in 2026; Fab 2 equip move-in 2H-2026 (N3 production 2H-2027). N2: Fab 20 Hsinchu + Fab 22 Kaohsiung in MP. First-year output expected 45% higher than N3's. Capacity CAGR 70% 2026-28. A14 (1.4nm): >80% yield on 256Mb SRAM. 10-15% speed or 25-30% power vs N2. CoWoS: 5.5× reticle at 98% yield. Scaling to 14× reticle for 20 HBMs by 2028, 24 HBMs by 2029. Future SoW "Super Exchange": 64 HBMs / 16 CoWoS units, >40× reticle, 100TB+ bandwidth. CFET: −30% SRAM cell area. COUPE: all-optical interconnects. Nystedt 5/11180♥"TSMC is building a Silicon Photonics empire, aggressively pursuing CPO opportunities with Xintec and VisEra. COUPE platform reveal at May 14 Tech Symposium." Nystedt 5/1292♥"TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging is completely full — 'sweet problem' causing real trouble. Over NT$1T market cap evaporated since Apple/Intel reports." Nystedt 5/9"Taiwan's semi exports April rose +40.5% YoY to $21.56B. Export prices rose ~20% in April — a 47-year high."

6 · Photonics Supercycle — Serenity's Chokepoint Thesis

Serenity 5/152,302♥"Photonics TAM $14B → $154B in 2 years. $LITE backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers, tethered to CPO + pluggable transceivers for 1.6T/3.2 — Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, $AMD. Core chokepoint & IP holder. $LPK = $ASML of glass substrates. $AAOI = INTC for America + Photonics. $IQE — Western epiwafer chokepoint." Serenity 5/151,272♥"$AMZN private placement with AlChip. Implies design wins with future Trainium. AlChip was Ayar's lead customer. $SIVE is primary laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE piggybacks Amazon's ecosystem growth." Serenity 5/154,573♥"23 longs YTD with 100-1000%+ returns: $AXTI, $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, $IQE, $AEHR, $CRCL, $EWY, Unimicron, Nitto Boseki, $OSS, $RPI, $SOI, $SNDK, $SIMO, $VPG, $TSEM, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $LPK." (Serenity Awareness Fund +3,152% YTD) Serenity 5/171,627♥"The most returns come from frontrunning institutions before they figure out the next $SNDK. Not following them 3 months after they file."

7 · China Memory: CXMT IPO + YMTC IPO

Jukan 5/17181♥"CXMT 1Q26: rev $7.46B, NP $4.85B, +719% YoY." Nystedt 5/14592♥ · 95 RT"China's YMTC will submit IPO application next month now expansion into DRAM greenlit. Wuhan Fab Phase 3 LPDDR DRAM ready EOY 2026. Valuation: RMB 160-300B ($23.6-44.2B)." DrFrederickChen 5/1599♥"CXMT DDR5 breakthrough hits market. 8,000 Mbps, 16Gb and 24Gb die densities. 24Gb leaves CXMT one generation behind Samsung/SK hynix/Micron 32Gb." Heim 5/1178♥"Others are 2 nodes ahead. Don't need EUV. Export controls work."

8 · Korea Memory Supercycle

Nystedt 5/15114♥"Kioxia Q4 revenue soared +188.9% YoY to ¥1.0T yen ($6.3B) as NAND ASPs more than doubled. Full year +37% to $14.8B. FY2026 capex ¥450B vs ¥283.7B FY25." Nystedt 5/15196♥"Kioxia plans to list shares on US stock exchange." Jukan 5/161,555♥"Nomura: Samsung KRW 590K PT, SK Hynix KRW 4M PT on PER basis." Nystedt 5/1329♥"Samsung's labor talks collapsed. 18-day strike could begin May 21." Kindig 5/7992♥"Samsung on memory shortage: 'demand currently received for 2027... supply-to-demand gap is set to widen even further than in 2026.'"

9 · Memory Pricing — TrendForce, IDC "this time is different"

Nystedt 5/7 (IDC)59♥"IDC: 'this time is different' in memory chip market. 'unprecedented inflection point, demand materially outpacing supply.' DRAM revenue +177% to $418.6B 2026. Total memory rev: $594.7B 2026 vs $266B 2025." firstadopter 5/10"DRAM +18%, ex-modules +35%, Flash +47%, SSD +140% — in one month." firstadopter 5/11"$DRAM ETF up about 60% <1 month." Nystedt 5/12166♥"Texas Instruments plans to raise prices 5%-15% — 2nd hike this year. Taiwan analog beneficiaries: #Silergy #Anpec"

10 · Intel Foundry Renaissance

Nystedt 5/12348♥ · 49 RT"TSMC faces rising Intel competition: Tesla (AI6.5), SK Hynix (EMIB for CoWoS shortage), Apple (preliminary), Nvidia + SpaceX (cooperation agreements)." Mojo 5/1589♥"INTC is sold out through this year and well into next year." BenBajarin 5/10296♥"The bad blood between NVIDIA (Jensen) and Intel is over. Good times ahead." DanielNenni 5/12"Intel stock tripled under Lip-Bu Tan. Jefferies PT $80 → $120." Mojo 5/13"80% of world's most valuable data is on legacy X86 on-prem. NVDA did MOU with INTC because they cannot penetrate this at scale without them."

11 · Packaging — ABF, OSAT, CoPoS, Mobile HBM

Nystedt 5/1191♥"ABF substrate spot +30%, contract +5-10%. Ajinomoto mulling +30% hike." Nystedt 5/8 (CoPoS)111♥"TSMC fast-tracking CoPoS requiring exclusive multi-year supply contracts." SemiAnalysis 5/13 (OSAT)224♥"Bullish $AMKR, $3711.TW. ASE/Amkor NOT investing in wire bonders — piling into CoWoS + advanced packaging." Jukan 5/111,614♥"SK Hynix conducting R&D on 2.5D packaging with Intel. Considering EMIB." Jukan 5/17 (Mobile HBM)209♥"Samsung 'Multi-Stacked FOWLP'. Cu pillar aspect 3-5:1 → 15-20:1. +15-30% bandwidth. Exynos 2800-2900."

12 · CPO / Optical — Foxconn shipping, Wiwynn-Ayar, Cisco re-rate

Nystedt 5/1364♥"Foxconn started shipping all-optical CPO racks to NVDA ahead of schedule, shipments quintupled to 50,000 for 2026-27. Supply so tight even demo units diverted." Nystedt 5/8 (Wiwynn-Ayar)"Wiwynn invested in Ayar Labs (US) and will integrate CPO in rack-level AI systems for hyperscalers. Strategic collab with GUC. El Paso TX plant began mass production." damnang2 5/1366♥"MSScorps (yield monopoly potential 90% share) + Foci (FAU chokepoint). MSScorp 0-to-100 rocket if patent-slap competitors." damnang2 5/1358♥"I have been talking about $CSCO for past 2-3 months. Cisco starting to get its moment." Jukan 5/17 (Hoya)706♥"Optical industry buying Hoya glass at 5× HDD pricing." Kindig 5/8447♥"NVDA investing $4B to secure supply chain ahead of CPO ramp 2027-2028."

13 · Datacenter / AI Capex

DavidSacks 5/1012,516♥"1 gigawatt DC napkin: Capex ~$50B. Enterprise revenue: $25-30B/yr. ~2 year payback. The boom is real." Nystedt 5/14 (Quanta)39♥"Quanta: AI server shipments triple-digit % growth. AI server now 75% of total server rev. High-end racks >$3M more than doubled. Shifting to consignment model."

Datapoint	Number	Source
Anthropic GCP commitment	$200B / 5yr	Kindig 5/14
Amazon Trainium committed rev	$225B	Kindig 5/8
NVDA FCF CY26+27	$400B+ (BofA)	Kindig 5/11
Cisco Q3 FY26 rev	$15.8B, +12% record	BenBajarin RT 5/14
AMAT CY26 SemiEq	>30%	SKundojjala 5/15
ARM core intensity	30M → 120M cores/GW agentic	SKundojjala 5/7
Cerebras IPO Day 1	$311.07 (+68.2%)	Nystedt 5/15
Amazon-Alchip stake	$73M (1% stake)	Nystedt 5/15
NVDA recent gain	+$900B in 7 trading days → ~$6T mcap	Ives RT 5/14

SemiAnalysis 5/9363♥"WW3: # of tokens each country has."

14 · Inference Era Unit Economics

BenBajarin 5/1572♥"New unit of value will be the full system: CPU + GPU + custom accelerator." BenBajarin 5/1375♥"The word you will want to brace for is superlinearly." BenBajarin 5/16 (Gavin Sohn synthesis)585♥ · 64 RT"The last terrestrial mega data center may already be on someone's drawing board. Most underestimated silicon: Trainium 3. Only NVDA + AWS have switched scale-up fabric." BenBajarin 5/16"Substations are the bottleneck, not trucks." Subbu 5/1050♥"xAI's Colossus-1 11% MFU vs 45-55% hyperscalers. Communication bottlenecks, silent data corruption, stragglers."

15 · Jensen's China Trip + H200 Approvals

Nystedt 5/14 (Reuters)122♥"NVDA H200 sales to 10 China firms × 75K each. USTR Greer: 'sovereign decision by China.'" Kakashii 5/14258♥"10 × 75K = 700K = Nvidia's H200 inventory at risk of write-off. Jensen made it!" Nystedt 5/1799♥"This was always China's plan. Lie, cheat, steal." Brad Gerstner 5/14260♥"Live on CNBC for first trade of @cerebras. Grateful to have been an early & ongoing investor. $CBRS"

16 · Bear Thesis

Kakashii 5/13149♥"We are short on deployed compute, but there are lots of GPUs. Lots." JG Nuke 5/123,961♥"Them: 'The demand is insane!' The Demand: [chart]" Heim 5/8 (CoAsia)44♥"CoAsia HBM smuggling re-spike: March 2026: 4.63B TWD — same magnitude as first surge." TheValueist 5/7"Memory vendors raising prices 5× to earn 50%+ ROE is a choice. No one is preventing hyperscalers from charging more for compute." Burry 5/11431♥"Short Thoughts May 10, 2026 — About That Boy Who Cried Wolf" Nystedt 5/1349♥"Nvidia sweatshop? Taiwan ODMs (Foxconn/Quanta/Wistron): more full-rack orders → margins shrink." NonGaap 5/12"'Shift AI token spending from OpEx to CapEx to boost adjusted EBITDA' 🤔"

17 · Geopolitics — Materials Weaponization, Defense, Trump-Xi

Serenity 5/15838♥"$AXTI / InP substrates are major part of China-US Trump-Xi talks. Japan should cut off Ulvac for humanoids. Red phosphorus (Rasa/NCI). Pressure EU to take back ficonTEC." GavinSBaker 5/3429♥"Sell deprecated GPUs to China: decreases odds they go down different, more power-intensive tech tree. Pro national-security." Jukan 5/14 (HF crisis)439♥"HF on red alert. AHF +40% YTD. Strait of Hormuz knocked out >30% global sulfur. 90% Korean AHF from China." Mojo 5/1135♥"Taiwan KMT votes to cut Lai's defense budget by 38%. More paths than one in front of Beijing to reintegrate Taiwan." Nystedt 5/11107♥"Taiwan LNG supply secure through September. Since Middle East conflict began Feb 28."

Per-Handle Quick Read + Voice Balance

elonmusk5
NEW v5 Grok V9 / FSD / Imagine

sama6
NEW v5 Codex push / Daybreak

demishassabis3
NEW v5 IsomorphicLabs $2.1B

karpathy1
NEW v5 HTML output thesis

AndrewYNg2
NEW v5 No jobpocalypse

sundarpichai2
NEW v5 Gemini Intelligence

satyanadella3
NEW v5 MDASH / Excel AI

GavinSBaker7
DEEP v5 Switched scale-up

DivesTech5
NEW v5 Apple $400 PT

dwarkesh_sp6
NEW v5 Reich, AlphaGo, Karpathy

dnystedt19
Anchor voice

aleabitoreddit (Serenity)4
Photonics anchor

BenBajarin6
Inference + Intel

jukan056
Capped at ~15%

Mojo_flyin4

kakashiii1113

damnang23

Beth_Kindig3

SemiAnalysis_3

DrFrederickChen1

ohlennart (Heim)2

firstadopter2

SKundojjala1 table-cite

DavidSacks1

altcap1

DanielNenni1

JG_Nuke / Burry / NonGaap / TheValueist4

Quick read by handle

@elonmusk NEW v5

Grok V9 reveal (5/17, 4.9K likes): 1.5T params, pre-training done, Cursor mid-training next, SFT + RL, 3-4wks to release. Plus FSD V14.3.3 (22K), Grok Imagine launch (17K), SpaceX Dragon docking "routine" (41K). Heavy political content too.

@sama Sam Altman NEW v5

Codex 2-month free promo (21K), Codex in mobile app (10K), Daybreak cybersecurity launch, "5.5 is autistic genius" (8K), GPT-Realtime-2 launch, voice as input observation, parent reflection. Highly prolific week.

@karpathy Andrej Karpathy NEW v5

Only 1 post in window (5/11) but viral: 17,400♥ thesis on AI output evolution text→markdown→HTML→interactive neural simulations. "Try asking your LLM to structure response as HTML."

@AndrewYNg NEW v5

"No AI jobpocalypse" pushback essay (5,266♥). Coursera+Udemy merger as Chairman (3,350♥). New transformers course w/ AMD. Custom UI agents course w/ CopilotKit.

@sundarpichai NEW v5

Gemini Intelligence rollout: Samsung Galaxy + Pixel summer; watch/car/glasses/laptops later this year. Googlebook laptop (1.1K RT). RCS E2E encryption Android↔iPhone (6.2K♥).

@demishassabis NEW v5

IsomorphicLabs $2.1B new funding (19,305♥) — "reimagine drug discovery, solve all disease". Aletheia powered by Gemini Deep Think autonomously solving math. AlphaGo 10-year anniversary (Lee Sae Dol meetup in Korea).

@satyanadella NEW v5

MDASH: 100+ specialized security agents tops CyberGym, found 16 vulnerabilities ahead of Patch Tuesday. GPT-5.5 Instant in M365 Copilot. "Excel quietly Turing complete, now AI-complete."

@GavinSBaker DEEP v5

April 16 thesis (2.1K♥) on portability erosion + switched scale-up vs torus (Nvidia vs Google) + Huawei CloudMatrix 384. Taiwan demographic constraint (816♥). Aria Networks Series A — "deep networking" tech for higher MFU (201♥). Sarah Friar Hall of Fame CFO. China deprecated GPU national security argument (429♥). Sohn 2026 interview link.

@DivesTech Dan Ives NEW v5

Apple PT $400 (959♥) — "toll collector on AI highway" — 20% of world population to access AI via Apple device. Cisco monster quarter (313♥). "Top of 3rd inning" AI Revolution bull. Software winners next. Europe AI Revolution keynotes (Poland).

@dwarkesh_sp Dwarkesh Patel NEW v5

David Reich genetics interview (1,974♥) — Bronze Age selection, cognitive performance +1 SD over 10K years. Eric Jang AlphaGo blackboard lecture (2,629♥). Jane Street DC stats (4,032 GPUs, 8,000km fiber, 598 RT). Karpathy on continual learning. Carl Shulman bioweapons.

@dnystedt Dan Nystedt

Anchor for TSMC Symposium + Quanta + Kioxia + YMTC + IDC memory thesis + multiple Intel signals. 19 quotes across themes.

@aleabitoreddit Serenity

Photonics chokepoint thesis: $14B → $154B TAM (2.3K♥). 23 longs YTD 100-1000%+ (4.6K♥). $SIVE-Ayar-AlChip-Amazon Trainium chain (1.3K♥).

@BenBajarin

Inference superlinear, Intel bad-blood-over, Memory $1T 2030, "substations not trucks", Gavin Sohn synthesis (585♥).

@jukan05 Jukan

Capped at ~15% share. Best: Nomura PER (1,555♥), Hoya 5× HDD (706♥), HF crisis (439♥), Mobile HBM (209♥), CXMT 1Q (181♥).

@Mojo_flyin

"INTC sold out 2026" (89♥). Taiwan defense cuts thesis (35♥). China AMD/INTC CPUs not banned.

@kakashiii111 Kakashii

Bear: 10×75K=700K H200 inventory math (258♥), Nebius dust (149♥), OpenAI losing share (195♥), Singapore-Malaysia smuggling (487♥).

@damnang2

Korean buyside ex-NVDA: CPO chokepoints, Credo+Astera, CSCO 2-3mo-ahead call, Power Investment Map.

@Beth_Kindig

Samsung 2027 quote (992♥), BofA NVDA $400B FCF (1,017♥), NVDA $4B optical, Anthropic $200B GCP.

@SemiAnalysis_

OSAT thread (224♥), "WW3 = tokens" (363♥), Anthropic CLI innovator's dilemma (482♥).

@DrFrederickChen

EUV expert: CXMT 24Gb DDR5 (99♥), 1c pitch 21nm (137♥), 3D DRAM ETA 2034.

@ohlennart Heim

CoAsia HBM smuggling re-spike (44♥). "Export controls work" (78♥). US DC > office spend since Nov 2025.

@subbdue Subbu

xAI 11% MFU technical teardown (50♥). chiplog.io.

@firstadopter Tae Kim

$DRAM ETF +60% in 1mo. Cisco AI 4× FY26 (MS). QCOM -11.5% S&P loser via his Substack.

@DavidSacks

1GW DC napkin math (12,516♥). Clarity Act. FDA-for-AI controversy.

@altcap Brad Gerstner

CBRS first trade CNBC (260♥). Early CBRS investor.

@FundamentEdge Brett Caughran

Ken Griffin Citadel AI pivot (5,298♥/764RT): "extraordinarily high skilled jobs being automated... went home depressed".

@SKundojjala

ARM AGI CPU 2× in 90d to >$2B. ARM cores/GW 30M → 120M (4×). AMAT CY26 SemiEq >30%.

@DanielNenni SemiWiki

"Intel stock tripled under Lip-Bu Tan". Cerebras 20× IPO. Phison NAND beneficiary.

@semidoped

Power 800V physics (126♥). Cerebras IPO + Trilogy Systems analogy. Gimlet Labs interview.

@TheValueist

Hyperscaler ROE = choice. LTA walk-away risk. Memory pendulum.

@JG_Nuke

"Demand: [chart]" 3,961♥/459RT. Channel stuffing meme.

@michaeljburry

"Boy Who Cried Wolf" Substack 5/11 (431♥). 6-part software/payments series.

@citrini

"KSTR over KWEB" (840♥). MediaTek TPU tripled. Alchip = Trainium analog?

@rwang07 Ray Wang

"Memory on fire" (202♥). Hynix 220K→2M KRW recap. Cerebras CFO trillion-param OpenAI quote.

@TMTLongShort

"Sub 100k within 3 years."

@vikramskr

Cerebras WSE breakdown. Gimlet Labs interview.

@grok NEW v5

Mostly user replies (TSMC repatriation, Korean memory, geopolitics). Less newsy, more conversational. Hermes Agent integration with Grok subscription + X search.

@plaffont Coatue NEW v5

Only 1 reply this window — to pmarca on US/China. Low signal-to-noise this week.

v5 Trade Ideas Summary

Long — AI Lab equity proxies

$GOOGL — Demis IsomorphicLabs + Gemini Intelligence rollout
$MSFT — Satya MDASH security agents + Excel AI
xAI pre-IPO — Grok V9 1.5T pre-trained, 3-4wks to release (Elon)

Long — Memory / Photonics (multi-voice)

SK Hynix / MU — Nomura PER + IDC $418B DRAM
Kioxia — Q4 +189% YoY, US listing
$SIVE, $AAOI, $IQE, $LPK — Serenity photonics chain

Long — Intel Foundry

$INTC — Mojo "sold out 2026"; Apple M7/iPhone; Tesla AI6; NVDA $5B; Jefferies $120 PT

Long — CPO/Optical (Nystedt+damnang)

Credo + Astera — NVDA analog leavers' destinations
$CSCO — Dan Ives "monster quarter"; damnang's 2-3mo ahead; AI 4× FY26
Foxconn CPO 50K racks; Wiwynn-Ayar; MSScorp+Foci

Long — Apple AI thesis (Ives)

$AAPL — Dan Ives $400 PT, "toll collector on AI highway", 20% world via Apple device

Watch / Risk

Samsung union strike May 21 — JPM 7-12% OP risk
OpenAI vs Gemini share = NVDA TAM risk (Kakashii)
Taiwan ODM "Nvidia sweatshop" margin paradox (Nystedt)
Rubin Ultra cooling Griffin reversion (Jukan/Mizuho)
CoAsia smuggling re-spike (Heim) — political risk
Citadel AI pivot → buyside multiples (Caughran)
Gavin Baker: portability erosion = co-design lock-in to specific stacks